Baseball America recently released their cubs top 10 prospects in the Cubs minor league system. Since I think most common cubs fans aren’t familiar with some of these guys I thought it might be fun to do a little analysis of each player and maybe post a picture(baseball card). So with that off we go:
 1. Felix Pie – Pie is a young (20 years old) 5 tool player from the Dominican Republic. He was signed at the age of 16 and played in instructional leagues until debuting in the Arizona Rookie League in 2002. In 2003 he played the season with the Lansing Lugnuts and spent 04′ in Daytona at High single A. Pie played the first 59 games of the 2005 season with AA West Tennesee before suffering a stress fracture in his ankle. Pie is currently playing winter ball with Licey in Venezuela. His power seems to be developing but his strikeout rate is troubling. The similarities in game with Corey Patterson are also troublesome. However, the cubs seem to be taking their time developing Pie unlike how they rushed Patterson to the majors.
|
compared to Patterson:
Patterson spent 1 full season in the minors and then got a september callup at the end of his second. He started the next year at Iowa where I expect Pie to play next year and then halfway into the season got his call to the majors. (Leaving out the time Patterson spent in AAA in 05). Both Pie and Patterson have high minor league K/BB ratios Pie 2.67 Strikeouts/Walk For comparison sake Francoeur was 2.97 career in the minors and 5.27 in the majors this year. Pie will likely see a midseason call up this year from AAA and hopefully he will fair better than Patterson has. Not to bring you down even more but his current Winter Ball stats are very underwhelming:
So Pie is far from a lock from being a major league star or even a regular but he does have talent. Also at least noteworthy Pie has hit in the leadoff spot while Patterson was batting 3rd in the minors. That can potentially have some influnece on a players approach toward the game. Pie’s been groomed for the position he is slated to play in the majors while Patterson was playing a role he was unlikely to hold in the majors. They still both tend to strike out a lot. Pie has a lower stolen base percentage but hits for better average. Patterson has a bit more power. They are so similar I don’t see how you could not compare them. They even wear the same number. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
 2. Mark PawelekPawelek was the Cubs 1st pick in the 2005 draft out of high school. A 19 year old left handed pitcher from Utah, Pawelek went his entire high school senior season without giving up an earned run. He was 36-2 over his entire high school career. Pawelek began his professional career in the rookie league going 0-3 with a 2.72 ERA in 13 starts and with a 2.67 K/BB ratio. At the end of the season Pawelek made one appearence for the Boise Hawks in short season A ball. He recieved a no decision in 3 innings and did not give up an earned run striking out 4 and walking 1. Pawelek throws a mid 90’s fastball, a good slider, and a 12-6 curve. “My curve is like a Barry Zito curve. It’s slow, but it breaks.” It will be interesting to see where the Cubs start Pawelek in 06′ since they started him so low this year. He was the only 2005 1st rounder to play in the rookie league in 2005. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
 3. Ronnie CedenoRonnie Cendeno recently learned how to hit. In his first 3 years in the minors Cedeno hit .211 in 922 at bats. The Cubs continued to advance him through the system and it paid off in 04 when Cedeno hit .279 in a full season for AA West Tennesee. His power also started to slightly develop and his OBP continues to rise. He was able to get on base at the major league level at a .356 clip. Cedeno proceeded to dominate AAA while he was there hitting .355 and slugging .518 prompting a call up. Cedeno saw limited action in the majors and was a victim to Dusty Baker’s loyalty to Neifi Perez. Cedeno is a strong fielder and was named Best Infield arm in the Cubs minor league system by Baseball America. Cedeno is playing winter ball in Venezuela trying to learn 2B and it is rumored the Cubs will acquire a SS and move him to 2B for the 2006 season. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
 4.Angel GuzmanAngel Guzman has been expected to join the Cubs rotation since 2003 but constant injuries have kept him from making the final step to the majors. Guzman had an impressive start to the minors not having an ERA over 2.87 and reasonable K/9 numbers. He walked a little more than you would like topping out at 3.16 BB/9 in 2002. Guzman began 2005 being expected to take over the cubs 5th spot in the rotation. Unfortuntely in April Guzman began having forearm problems that ended up stretching into the entire season. Guzman made a couple starts in rookie league and then1 start in Peoria before the end of the season. To get extra work in he went to the Arizona Fall League and racked up a 3.82 ERA in a very hitter friendly league. He likely has little trade value so I expect him to stay in the Cubs system and compete for the 5th starter in spring training. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
 5. Rich HillHill was drafted as a college pitcher but still spent a lot of time in the low minors. After spending 02-04 in A Ball Hill began 2005 again in single A. After 1 start he was promoted to AA where he was leading the league in strikeouts. He then was promoted to AAA and his high strikeout rate continuted to grow along with his control. This turned into a call up to the majors for 10 appearences with 4 starts due to injuries to Wood and Prior. After a few reasonable starts his control suffered and he fell into problems with walks(which plagued him early in his minor league career. As a lefty with a devastating 12-6 curve that is similar to Barry Zito, Hill is a valuable commodity. Hill has a low 90’s fastball and is working in a changeup as well as a cut fastball. Hill has been mentioned in many trade rumors, although Cubs GM Jim Hendry has made statements to the effect that Hill would be unlikely to be included on any deals this off season. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
 6. Sean MarshallMarshall was a 6th round pick in the 2003 draft out of Virginia Commonwealth University. Marshall began his professional career advancing well through single A in 03 and 04 earning a call up to AA West Tennesee for the second half of 2004. His stats across the board went from above average to mediocre at best. | | | | | | | | |
Marshall tore a tendon in 04 and had to leave his stint in the Arizona Fall League. He had to be shut down again in 05 because of shoulder stiffness that didn’t heal like he wanted. For a list of pitches how about I let him tell you: |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
 7.Ricky NolascoNolasco was just traded today to the Marlins along with Reynel Pinto and Sergio Mitre for Juan Pierre so I won’t waste too much time on him. He had a great 2005 but was repeating the level after getting rocked in AAA. In case you are worried about him being another Dontrelle Willis he does not compare favorably. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
 8.Ryan HarveyHarvey was listed as the Cubs #3 prospect last year by Baseball America. That he is now ranked #8 should be clear that he did not have a good year. The 6th overall pick in the 2003 draft Harvey has been highly touted since entering the Cubs system. Harvey attended high school with Brian Dopirak #9 and it also happens to be the same high school Cubs GM Jim Hendry attended (Dunedin High School FL). His average was fairly similar but his strikeout rate ballooned | | | | | | |
Power wise Harvey had a decent year but those are Rob Deer type strike out numbers. I expect Harvey to start next year in Peoria and if he doesn’t cut down on his K rate he will likely spend the entire season there. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
 9.Brian DopriakConsidered the Cubs best prospect in 2004 Dopriak suffered a horrid season and I can only assume he was included on this list as a courtesy to his 2004 numbers. | | | | | | | | | | | | |
The Cubs have certainly not given up on him after adding him to the 40 man roster early this month to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. Obviously blocked in the majors by Derrek Lee I would imagine if he could put up numbers anything close to what he did in 04 he would become a valuable trading chip and not much more to the Cubs. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
 10.Eric PattersonEric Patterson was voted the Cubs Minor League player of the year along with Sean Gallagher who was chosen Cubs minor league pitcher of the year. Patterson dominated single A Peoria and was placed straight into West Tennesee completely bypassing High A ball. Patterson played college ball at Georgia and put up almost exactly the same stats there as he did in Peoria. I believe Patterson is being very underrated by Baseball America and punished because he is a college player and not straight from high school. A faster version of his big brother Corey but with less power Patterson should make the jump to the majors quickly and hopefully his college time will keep him from suffering from the same fate as Corey(most claim he was rushed too fast to the majors). I think a september call up in 06 is not out of the question for Patterson especially if he has a similar 06 in West Tennesee as his 05.
|
Great list.
Props on the Rob Deer reference.